The decomposition.
Breaking the problem into multiplicative components. The right factor tree gets you 80% of the way. The wrong one is the wrong answer.
About/Fermi Estimation
Order-of-magnitude reasoning, structured estimation, sanity checks. Graded on the path you took to the number.
Easy is the definition. Normal combines two. Hard hides which one applies until you've done the work.
Breaking the problem into multiplicative components. The right factor tree gets you 80% of the way. The wrong one is the wrong answer.
Using known reference values: city populations, hours/year, the constants you should know cold.
Comparing the estimate to bounds you know. If McDonald’s revenue is > world GDP, recheck.
Reporting a range, not a point. Width × accuracy, both graded.
Two paths to the same estimate. Reconcile the gap.
The one factor that swings the estimate by an order of magnitude.
“Right number, wrong path.
No offer.”
Other skills
Train them in any order. The system targets your level in each.
01
Mental Math.
Speed arithmetic, fractions, percentages, log/exp.
02
Probability & Statistics.
Conditional, Bayes, expected value, distributions.
03
Trading Intuition.
Bid-ask, market making, position sizing, P&L.
05
Logic & Brainteasers.
Logic puzzles, combinatorics, game theory.
06
Cognition.
Working memory, reaction time, sequence, planning.
Be among the first traders to train on quanto. Early members receive exclusive pricing before public launch.
One email when the cohort opens. No spam.