Conditional probability.
P(A|B) algebra, partition arguments, re-conditioning. The most common normal- and hard-tier setup, and the one most candidates trip on.
About/Probability & Statistics
Conditional probability, Bayes, expected value, distributions. Where most candidates separate.
Easy is the definition. Normal combines two. Hard hides which one applies until you've done the work.
P(A|B) algebra, partition arguments, re-conditioning. The most common normal- and hard-tier setup, and the one most candidates trip on.
Prior, likelihood, posterior under coin flips, urns, base-rate fallacies.
Linearity, indicators, optional stopping. Fair value of a bet.
PMF tricks, moment shortcuts, when to reach for which.
Uniform, exponential, normal. Order statistics, memoryless tricks.
Two-variable problems, covariance, conditional expectation.
“Most candidates don’t fail on the math.
They fail on conditioning on the wrong thing.”
Other skills
Train them in any order. The system targets your level in each.
01
Mental Math.
Speed arithmetic, fractions, percentages, log/exp.
03
Trading Intuition.
Bid-ask, market making, position sizing, P&L.
04
Fermi Estimation.
Order-of-magnitude reasoning. Process beats number.
05
Logic & Brainteasers.
Logic puzzles, combinatorics, game theory.
06
Cognition.
Working memory, reaction time, sequence, planning.
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